This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
Just eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.